North Texas Real Estate: What the April 2026 Numbers Are Actually Telling Us

Every spring, the same question lands in our inbox: "Is the North Texas market still hot, or is it finally cooling off?" The honest answer for April 2026 is: it depends on which side of the closing table you're sitting on. The data tells a more nuanced story than the headlines do — and if you're planning to buy or sell this summer, the nuance is exactly where the money is.

We pulled the latest MLS numbers across Dallas, Collin, and Denton Counties — eleven different metrics, from sales price to inventory to days on market — and the picture is clearer than it's been in months. Inventory is up. Pendings are down. Sale-to-list ratios are creeping back toward the high-90s. The market isn't crashing, but it isn't 2022 anymore either. Here's what's actually happening, and what to do about it.

The North Texas Market at a Glance

Three counties. Three slightly different stories. But one shared trend: we're moving toward balance. Months supply across the region sits between 4.5 and 4.7 — close enough to a true balanced market (around 6 months) that buyers have real choice for the first time in years, but tight enough that good homes priced right still move quickly.

That last number is the one most people miss. Yes, inventory is rising. Yes, pendings are falling. But median days on market actually dropped 20–25% from March. Buyers are still out there — they're just being more selective. The homes that show well, price right, and look move-in ready are still getting offers in under a month. The ones that don't are sitting.

County-by-County: The Numbers That Matter

Regional averages mask real differences. Here's how Dallas, Collin, and Denton stacked up in April 2026 — pulled directly from MLS:

Dallas County: Softening on Price, Faster on Pace

Dallas is the softest of the three on price — average price ticked down 0.2% month-over-month and the median dropped 2.4%. Year-over-year, prices are roughly flat. But Dallas is also the fastest-moving market in the region, with median days on market at just 24 days. Inventory is climbing and pendings are falling, which tilts the leverage slightly toward buyers — but motivated sellers with realistic pricing are still finding deals quickly.

Collin County: Strongest Prices, Coolest Pendings

Collin holds the highest median sale price in the region at $463,450, and prices ticked up modestly from March. But it's also the only county with a month-over-month drop in closed deals, and supply is growing faster here than anywhere else. The translation: Collin is still desirable, but the buyer pool is being more selective. If you're listing in Frisco, Plano, McKinney, or Allen, your photos, staging, and pricing strategy matter more than they did six months ago.

Denton County: Stable, Steady, Trending Toward Balance

Denton is the steadiest of the three. Prices are firm. Closings are strong. The drop in pendings (a leading indicator we'll come back to) is the loudest signal here — but for now, Denton looks like a market trending toward genuine balance rather than tipping in either direction. For buyers eyeing Flower Mound, Lewisville, Little Elm, or Argyle, this is a moment to act with confidence rather than panic.

Five Trends That Actually Matter

Pulling back from the county detail, here are the five signals worth watching over the next 30–90 days:

• Inventory is up 9–15% in a single month. More homes on the market means more choice for buyers, more competition for sellers, and longer marketing timelines for anything priced ahead of comps.
• Pendings dropped 20–32% from March. This is the leading indicator. Closed sales tell you about deals that already happened; pendings tell you what's coming. A drop this size signals buyer demand is easing — not collapsing, but cooling.
• Sale-to-list ratios are climbing back toward 97%. Counterintuitive given the inventory growth — but this is what happens when sellers price more realistically out of the gate. Discounts are rare. Lingering listings get them. Fresh, well-priced ones don't.
• Year-over-year prices are flat to slightly down. Collin and Denton are off 3–7% from last April. Dallas is roughly flat. Don't underwrite your decision on aggressive appreciation assumptions — the market is no longer doing that work for you.
• Months supply is approaching balance. 4.5 to 4.7 months across the three counties is the closest we've been to a true balanced market in years. Watch this number. Drift toward 6 means buyer advantage. Drift toward 3 means seller advantage.

None of these trends are panic signals. All of them are positioning signals. The market is rebalancing, and the buyers and sellers who recognize that early are the ones who win.

What This Means If You're Buying or Selling

If You're Buying

This is the best buyer environment we've had in North Texas in three years — but it doesn't feel like one if you're chasing the freshest, best-priced listing. Here's how to use the shift in your favor:

• Get pre-approved before you tour. Median DOM under 30 days means the right house won't wait while you call your lender.
• Hunt the listings sitting past 30 days. Rising inventory creates leverage on the homes that didn't sell quickly. That's where real negotiation room lives.
• Don't expect a discount on fresh inventory. Sale-to-list near 97% means new listings priced correctly are still going at or near ask. Save the negotiation energy for stale listings.
• Underwrite for flat appreciation. If your decision only works with 5%+ annual appreciation, rework the numbers. The data doesn't support it right now.

If You're Selling

The window for catching residual spring momentum is open — but it's narrowing. Here's what we tell our seller clients right now:

• Price for 96–97% realization on day one. The market punishes optimistic list prices. Homes priced 5%+ over comps don't get counter-offers — they get ignored, and then they sit, and then they reduce.
• Invest in photography and staging. When buyers have 6,000+ Collin County homes to scroll through, your listing has about three seconds to earn the click. Make those seconds count.
• Handle the small repairs before listing. Buyers in a balanced market negotiate harder on inspection items. Replacing a $150 outlet pre-listing costs less than a $1,500 buyer credit.
• Don't wait for "next month." Falling pendings are the early warning sign of seasonal slowdown. Listing in May or early June still catches the spring push. Listing in August doesn't.

The Bottom Line

The North Texas market is rebalancing — not crashing, not booming. Buyers have more choice than they've had in years. Sellers have to work harder than they did in 2021 or 2022. Both sides win when they make decisions on real data instead of headlines.

County averages also wash over the micro-trends that actually drive your transaction. Whether you're in East Plano, North Dallas, or south Denton, the real question isn't "what's the market doing?" — it's "what's your ZIP code, your subdivision, and your specific price band doing?" That's where we earn our keep.

Data source: NTREIS / MLS exports for Dallas, Collin, and Denton Counties, January 2016 through April 2026. This summary uses public MLS fields only and does not capture mortgage rates, employment trends, school ratings, or new construction activity, all of which can materially shift outcomes. Month-over-month figures reflect seasonality and noise; we recommend pairing them with three-month and year-ago comparisons for context.